confounding factor or lurking variable

confounding factor or lurking variable Confounding variable, also known as confounding factor or lurking variable can be defined as an undesirable variable that has an influence on the relationship between the variables of an experiment. Although they are not the variable of actual interest (i.e. the independent variable), they can influence the outcome of an experiment and they are considered to be undesirable as they could add error to an experiment. A proper designed experiment should aim to decrease or control the influence of such confounding variables in order to avoid type 1 error; an error that raises a false positive conclusion that the independent variables have a casual relationship with the dependent variable. The relationship between the two observed variables is called a spurious relationship, hence a confounding variable is a threat to the validity of inferences made about cause and effect, i.e. the internal validity because the observed effect should be attributed to the independent variable rather than to the confounding variable. An example can be illustrated by the relationship between ice cream sales and drowning deaths. When these variables are entered into a statistical analysis, they may show a positive and potentially statistically significant correlation. However, it is a mistake to infer a causal relationship (i.e., ice cream causes drowning) because an important confounding variable which causes both ice cream sales and an increase in drowning deaths has not been accounted for: i.e. summertime. Although there is a body of literature of criteria for causality, Pearl claimed that confounding variables cannot be defined in terms of statistical notions alone; some causal assumptions are sometimes necessary. For example, when causal assumptions are being defined in the form of causal graphs, a simple criterion called backdoor will identify sets of confounding variables. Types of confounding variables Confounding variables may also be categorized according to their source: the choice of measurement instrument, situational characteristics, or inter-individual differences. Solution There are several ways to combat confounding variables in an experimental design by excluding or controlling it. Here is the following: Case control studies: by assigning the same confounding variables to both the experimental and control group can control for such confounder, for example, if the cause of multiple infarct dementia is being studied, age and sex could be the confounding variables, therefore these factors should be matched paired between the two participant groups. In addition, randomization is also another solution as having all confounding variables (whether known or unknown) will be equally distributed across all groups. Cohort studies: this is done by admitting a specific group of participants into the sampling population, for example a specific age range that may affect multiple infarct dementia, therefore only a certain group is chosen for the study design such as male aged 45-50 years old. This would limit the degree of matching between the groups and also cohorts can be comparable in regard to the possible confounding variable. Stratification: in the example of multiple infarct dementia study, physical activity is hypothesized to be a variable that can prevent this dementia from happening. With age as a possible confounder. The sampling data will then be stratified by age group so that the association between physical activity and dementia can be analyzed per age group. If different age group yields different risk ratios (this can be analyzed by statistical tools called Mantel-Haenszel methods), then age is seen as a confounding variable. Despite solutions for the controlling and limiting confounding variables, these strategies have limitations too. For example if a participant in the case-control study is a 47year old African-American from Alaska, avid tennis player, vegetarian, working as an engineer and suffer from multiple infarct dementia. Proper matching would require a person of the same characteristics but with the sole difference of being healthy. This is extremely difficult to achieve and there is a risk of over- or undermatching of the study population. Additionally, in a cohort study, too many people may be excluded with this criteria, and in stratification, single strata can get too narrow and contain only a small, non-significant number of samples. Randomization One of the most common reasons for the existence of confounding variable is when the experimental design does not randomly assign participants to groups or some types of individual difference such as ability, extroversion, height and weight. For example, studies involving a comparison between men and women are inherently plagued with confounding variables since the social environment for males and females is very different to start with. However, this does not mean that there is no value in gender comparison studies or other studies that does not employ random assignment but it implies that results interpretation should be done cautiously. In sum, random assignment is a useful and powerful tool in experimental design. Although it does not minimize the overall amount of extraneous variable in an experiment, it aims to equalize the error that may occur as a result of extraneous variable, therefore it can greatly decrease systematic error: error that varies within the independent variab le. Multivariate analyses Another method for controlling confounding variable is by the use of covariates in multivariate analyses. However, this only gives little information about the strength of the confounding variable compared to stratification methods. Furthermore, confounding variables are not always known or measurable which means residual confounding (term for incompletely controlled confounding) may appear. In an experimental design, covariate adjustment can help to reduce the noise in an outcome variation whilst enabling the manipulation effect to be performed. In sum, successful randomization can minimize confounding variables by bother measured and unmeasured factors, whereas statistical control addresses only confounding variables that have been measured and can introduce more confounding variables and other biases through inappropriate control. Mismeasurement and mis-specification Although it is important to spot confounding variables in a study there is often a risk of having a statistically controlled but imperfectly measured factor that may confound an association of the variables. This is termed residual confounding which describes the mismeasurement and an example is given to illustrate this. In a study example, it was found that people with higher rate of vacation is correlated with lower risk of mortality. Several explanations can account for this as vacation mitigates stress, diminishes anger and encourage more exercise. On the other hand, healthier people might be more likely to travel so vacation may not be a genuine causal factor but only a marker of initial health status that naturally predicts longevity. Consequently, vacation may remain to be a significant predictor even after adjusting for baseline health status as the covariate. It is therefore easy to construct a series of potential confounders but many would lack plausibility. For example, pe ople with more friends may have more vacations and friend was indeed the predictor variable instead, low-stress working environment and wide range of food (I.e. completeness of diet) may all attribute to prolong life too. However, because plausibility is a highly subjective factor for considering whether enough potential founders are included. To identify confounders Priori knowledge of the likely causal pathways are required. The major drawback of this is that observational studies imply that the strength of any causal inference will depend on the biologic plausibility of the putative factor, and the implausibility of uncontrolled potential confounders. In addition, observations contain some judgmental component which varies from experimenters. For example, vacation may prolong longevity because sick people tend to travel less, to deal with this. Measurements of participants initial health may be used as an adjustment but this however cannot be assessed without error. Moreover, hea lth can be measured in so many different ways and not all can be included and controlled for. This raises more and more questions such as: can the use of initial stress test be used to capture aspects of health confounded by vacation? Is body mass index relevant? Consequently, even if the optimal measure of confounder is used it is measured with error and adjustment for it may not eliminate the effects of vacations. From the statistical analysis perspective, poorly measured confounding variables causes more problems as its effect may not be linear, by assuming linearity on the outcome as specified by the model by entering confounding variables as a covariate in standard regression models may not fully adjust for the confounder effects are not linear on that scale. Mediators and confounders There is a common conflict that different causal explanations can be possible when adjustment is used to reduce or eliminate the predictive power of the independent variable. For example, a confounding variable may sometimes be a marker of some causal factors but it is not directly involved in the causal chain from one variable to another and there is a problem of over-adjustment. Considering an example on the hypothesis that high blood pressure (BP) reaction to stress causes Hypertension. To test this hypothesis, a longitudinal study should be conducted where BP reactivity and resting BP levels of a large group of participants should be measured. Result findings should report that excessive reactivity to be the risk factor for later hypertension but the problem is reactivity may just be a marker for elevated BP resting level and it is not important per se. consistent with this problem, those participants with higher resting BP may correlate with high BP reactivity scores. To control for the current confounding variable, the initial resting BP levels should be adjusted by regression analysis which llustrates whether BP reactivity is attributed to any predictive information beside just the initial resting BP level. This may show that reactivity is no longer a very predictive factor and most of the variation in the follow-up BP levels may be accounted for by the initial resting levels. However, this does not mean that reactivity is not causally related to future BP status, i.e. if increased reactivity preceded initial increase in resting BP level, it could also be responsible in part for the initial increase in resting BP level. This is a situation whereby a single variable may have both confounding and mediating roles simultaneously. The example of vacation and mortality is used to illustrate this: assuming that people who go on more vacations are less likely to die over a 5-year longitudinal study, including a factor: initial health status in the regression mod el could eliminate this association. Alternatively, if people in poor health take fewer vacations then this elimination may reflect the removal of a confounding variable by health status. However, if the participants tendencies to go on vacation are constant over the 5 year period then health status will reflect the cumulative health impact of a lifetimes vacation habits. This shows that health status will contribute partly as a mediator of vacationing effects. This confusion between a mediator and a confounder will be less apparent if the risk factor is not stable over time. For example if the participant has only just started having vacations, then these will not be reflected in the initial health status and may have higher opportunity to predict subsequent health with initial health status as a covariate in the analysis. However, if these changes become out of control, it can create a quasi-experimental design. For example, if people take vacations due to change in their company policy rather than the reason of making friends or have spare time, and other group have less vacation for the same reason. Then in this case, it is possible to assess the effect of vacation independently of initial health status. In sum, indiscriminate adjustment of covariates may result in erroneous conclusions and many socialdemographic variables can be mediated by other factors such as low income, unfulfilling jobs, no friends etc. moreover, there may also be other intermediate variables like self-determinations and release of stress hormones that may affect the results. Considering the wide range of variables listed, any inaccurate measures of them may lead to a reduction or elimination of predictive power. Moreover, by controlling a mediator may produce further confounding variables, which will then increase or decrease the associations of the independent and dependent measures. Furthermore, it may even create a new spurious association when in fact no effect is present. In sum, despite the number of limitations discussed in this critical review, they have an important role in behavioural research as randomized trials are sometimes found to be impractical and unethical. In spite of the hazardous statistical control of confounding variables will gain insight into special cautions in drawing conclusions and writing research in the future.

Tuesdays With Morrie by Mitch Albom :: essays research papers

Tuesdays with Morrie is an inspiring tale in which Mitch, a young man struggling with the concept of a meaningful life is given a second chance, and a new outlook on life when he meets his past teacher, Morrie. They quickly renew the relationship they once possessed in college. Morrie becomes Mitch’s mentor, role model and friend once again. This time around, however, the lessons are on subjects such as life, love, and culture. With the threatening reality of Morrie’s illness looming overhead, Mitch must learn from him just how necessary it is to live life to the fullest. Mitch was living an empty life, a life lacking fulfillment and love. Morrie explained this in a quote â€Å"So many people walk around with a meaningless life. They seem half-asleep, even when they are busy doing things they think are important. This is because they're chasing the wrong things.† He also explained, â€Å"The way you get meaning into your life is to devote yourself to loving others, devote yourself to your community around you, and devote yourself to creating something that gives you purpose and meaning.† Morrie helps Mitch lead a life consisting of love and happiness rather then material possessions. Morrie taught Mitch to live with the key ingredients of happiness and gave him understanding about what those ingredients are, and how to make them apart of his life. The key ingredient of a happy and successful life, as taught to Mitch by Morrie, is love. Morrie made the following statement in the movie. â€Å"We must love one another or perish.† It explains the belief that if one does not have love in their life, they are not truly living. In Mitch’s life, love for his girlfriend Janine took second place to his demanding career in journalism. However, when Janine leaves him because of this insensitivity, he realizes that Morrie’s words are true and strives to change. Janine accepts Mitch back upon seeing the transition he has gone though. Mitch’s commitments at work were a big problem in their relationship and he understood that in order to restore the relationship he must let go of these. Love was the first personal commitment Mitch lived up to, replacing work deadlines with a marriage date. Love becomes the driving force in Mitch’s life. Morrie helped Mitch discover who he truly is, and gives views on culture and the pressures of fitting into society’s uniform mold. Tuesdays With Morrie by Mitch Albom :: essays research papers Tuesdays with Morrie is an inspiring tale in which Mitch, a young man struggling with the concept of a meaningful life is given a second chance, and a new outlook on life when he meets his past teacher, Morrie. They quickly renew the relationship they once possessed in college. Morrie becomes Mitch’s mentor, role model and friend once again. This time around, however, the lessons are on subjects such as life, love, and culture. With the threatening reality of Morrie’s illness looming overhead, Mitch must learn from him just how necessary it is to live life to the fullest. Mitch was living an empty life, a life lacking fulfillment and love. Morrie explained this in a quote â€Å"So many people walk around with a meaningless life. They seem half-asleep, even when they are busy doing things they think are important. This is because they're chasing the wrong things.† He also explained, â€Å"The way you get meaning into your life is to devote yourself to loving others, devote yourself to your community around you, and devote yourself to creating something that gives you purpose and meaning.† Morrie helps Mitch lead a life consisting of love and happiness rather then material possessions. Morrie taught Mitch to live with the key ingredients of happiness and gave him understanding about what those ingredients are, and how to make them apart of his life. The key ingredient of a happy and successful life, as taught to Mitch by Morrie, is love. Morrie made the following statement in the movie. â€Å"We must love one another or perish.† It explains the belief that if one does not have love in their life, they are not truly living. In Mitch’s life, love for his girlfriend Janine took second place to his demanding career in journalism. However, when Janine leaves him because of this insensitivity, he realizes that Morrie’s words are true and strives to change. Janine accepts Mitch back upon seeing the transition he has gone though. Mitch’s commitments at work were a big problem in their relationship and he understood that in order to restore the relationship he must let go of these. Love was the first personal commitment Mitch lived up to, replacing work deadlines with a marriage date. Love becomes the driving force in Mitch’s life. Morrie helped Mitch discover who he truly is, and gives views on culture and the pressures of fitting into society’s uniform mold.

The Lucky Luciano’s History

Lucky Luciano Lucky Luciano made the modern mafia. In 1931 he cut New York into five slices and served the rackets up in a form that still exists today. He had his fingers in every slice of the metaphoric mince meat pie that was America in the first half of the twentieth century, and then spent his remaining years ruling the underworld from afar. In the history of organized crime, there has never been a more powerful boss, and unless there is a drastic change in American law enforcement, no one person will ever be able to consolidate so much criminal power again.In 20 years, with the help of the 18th amendment, Charles Luciano went from being an average pimp to a God amongst thugs. With the help of a number of other famous gangsters, Lucky built a single, business-like crime syndicate with a board of directors and a directed sense of purpose. It would come to rule the entire United States, and eventually, a good portion of the world. From Humble Beginnings Born in italy in 1896 as Sa lvatore Lucania, Lucky Luciano eventually changed his name to spare his family the embarrassment of reading about him in the newspapers.As a kid, he was a thug; he dealt drugs, sold women, and stole anything he could. He was constantly picked up by New York police, who typically smacked him around and dropped him back on the streets due to his age. Junkies everywhere, take note: Charlie â€Å"Lucky† Luciano created the modern heroin trade. Thanks Chuck! In 1915, at the tender age of 19, Luciano was first arrested for dealing heroin on the streets of New York. Upon release, he broke his sales ring into a tiered affair, with thugs standing on street corners dealing out the dope while he stayed upstairs with the women.He was probably one of the first gangsters to use it in his pimping operations to help keep the girls loyal. In 1920, Luciano joined Joe Masseria's gang and helped run booze, manage prostitutes, and traffic horse for the Sicilian mafia. Masseria trusted Luciano, wh o was a great and reliable earner. He eventually became Masseria's right hand man, making him one of the most powerful gangsters in New York. Somewhere in the 20's, Lucky met Bugsy Siegel and Meyer Lansky. This three-way introduction is one of the classic underworld myths, and many versions of the story exist.One alleges that Lansky was a heroin addict at the time. Others describe awkward scenes featuring screaming hookers, naked Jews, and Lucky the belt wielding pimp. And still others describe Lansky whacking Luciano upside the head with a plumbers wrench to defend a crying Bugsy. No matter how it went down, the event served as a symbolic destruction of the old racial walls that existed in the New York underground. Previously, Italian and Jewish gangs tended not to associate on the street, but Lucky would be one of the first to cross the cultural lines and forge an alliance between the groups.Siegel, Lansky and Luciano would become the driving force behind the eventual formation of the National Crime Syndicate: Lucky was the heart of the syndicate, Lansky its brains, and Bugsy its fist. Sicilian Neck Tie In 1929, Masseria's gang became embroiled in a violent turf war with Salvatore Maranzano's mafia. Maranzano was a megalomaniacal don fixated on becoming the one and only ruler of New York. In October that same year, Luciano was on a dock at on the Hudson River inspecting a load of fresh chiba that had just arrived. Four of Maranzano's men rolled up in a car, grabbed Luciano and taped his mouth shut.They beat the shit out of him for an hour as they slowly drove towards Staten Island. Once there, they slit his throat and cheek, then dumped him in a ditch and left him for dead. Luciano lived through this attack, earning him the nickname â€Å"Lucky. † Luciano saw the attack as a sign that the gang war had to end, and soon. He, along with Siegel and Lansky, went to see Maranzano. They struck a deal with Marazano to divide up Masseria's empire: Marazano got the liquor turf, Luciano got the girls and the drugs. Luciano set up a dinner meeting with Masseria at the Nuova Villa Tammaro, a spaghetti house on Coney Island.After a few hours of feasting, he excused himself to use the pisser. In walked Bugsy Seigel, Joe Adonis, Vito Genovese, Albert Anastasia, and Meyer Lansky. Out walked Luciano as the new leader of Masseria's gang. Only half a year passed before Siegel and Luciano bumped off Marazano. This placed Luciano in charge of New York. Through agreements with Dutch Schultz and other Manhattan turf barons, Luciano was able to consolidate all underworld power and streamline the mafia. The Syndicate Rises Despite having dropped out of school in the 4th grade, Luciano had a business savvy unrivaled in the crime world.He set up a board of directors that included all the major players, including millionaire thug Joe Adonis and beancounter extraordinaire Meyer Lansky, who remained on the board until the late 70's. There was even a trial str ucture to hear complaints and justly determine if someone should be whacked. The underground began to flourish, and the organization became known as the National Crime Syndicate. Gambling, prostitution, drugs, liquor, and guns could all be had from the Syndicate, and everyone in the underworld had to pay tribute to the organization by giving it a percentage in all takes.Even assassinations became big business thanks to Lucky. With the help of Bugsy Siegel and Albert Anastasia, Luciano formed Murder Inc. , a professional grade killing company staffed mostly with Jewish hitmen. Mobsters in need of a hit simply called Murder Inc and bought themselves some prescreened contract killers. It was much like 1-800-dentist, but with guns and piano wire instead of drills and laughing gas. This establishment was responsible for hundreds of hits throughout the late 30's, including the killings of Dutch Schultz, Abe Wagner, and even it's founder, Bugsy Siegel. Still Pimpin'Luciano was on top of th e world by 1936. He had a different woman every night, a habit he had picked up early on. By 1936, his empire of whores caught up with him. The state of New York had amassed enough evidence and testimony to put Luciano in jail for pimping by years end. Thomas Dewey, special prosecutor in the case, paraded a near endless stream of witnesses before the jury. Over 28 of them were hookers, and Luciano was incensed by this fact. He claimed that the government had coerced the testimony of these whores by offering them free trips to Europe and a steady supply of drugs.One of these hookers was permitted by the judge to take a shot of bourbon while on the stand to help keep the morphine shakes off long enough to finger Luciano. Initially, most people believed Luciano was grasping at straws, but some documents from Deweys offices confirm that a large number of tickets to Europe were purchased by the office in the same year as the trial. Luciano was sentenced to 30 years in jail for his allege d masterminding of the New York flesh trade. Prison didn't dwindle Luciano's influence. He remained firmly in charge, even under lock down.So great was his influence that when the US government was searching for German saboteurs in the ports of New York during World War II, they came to Luciano to ask for help. Luciano agreed, and used his power to bring the Nazi conspirators to the surface. Luciano also helped the government find contacts on Sicily and in Italy before the Allied invasions. In 1946, Thomas Dewey, now governor of New york, gave Luciano a pardon and deported him to Italy. There, Luciano lived out the rest of his days entertaining the like of Frank Sinatra Sr. and other celebrities.He remained active in Syndicate business, however, even in exile. In 1946, he flew to Cuba to meet with fellow mafiosos about turning the island into a floating Las Vegas. In December of 1946, Luciano arrived in Cuba to discuss the realization of plans for the island. All the biggest names i n the mafia were there: Vito Genovese, Meyer Lanksy, Joe Adonis, and Santos Trafficante Jr. , relative of the infamous senator James Traficant. Aging gangsters arrived one after another, all there to pay respects to Luciano and affirm that he was still in control.Of those in attendance, Vito Genovese was the only real troublemaker. Genovese initially asked Luciano to step down from power, a request which infuriated the aging mobster. Eventually, after a few days of meetings, Genovese again asked Luciano to step down, and to retreat to Italy. Luciano was sure that Genovese had tipped off Washington to his presence in Cuba. Luciano leaped on Genovese and beat the living shit out of him, breaking three of the man's ribs. Aside from wupping up on Gevovese, there were other issues to be discussed at the Havana conference.One issue was narcotics sales, something Luciano thought was becoming too hot for the mob to remain in. He pleaded with his underlings to get out of the business, but no one seemed to care. Meyer Lansky informed Luciano that Genovese was orchestrating much of the trade now, and his followers, as well as his enemies, were making too much money off of drug trafficking to back down now. Another issue was Bugsy Siegel. Bugsy had purposely been left out of the conference because his Flamingo hotel, by then $6 million in the hole, was a sticking point for many in the group.By the end of the conference, Siegel was marked for death. His old friend, Meyer Lansky was unable to help him because he was not allowed to vote in any conference matters. Only Italians could vote, and Lansky was a Jew. In 1962, Luciano was planning to help produce a movie about his life. A Hollywood producer flew to meet the aging gangster in Naples, Italy on January 26th. As Luciano was walking across the runway to shake the producer's hand, he dropped dead suddenly of a heart attack.

The Use Of Methamphetamine And Its Effects On Children

Methamphetamine, more commonly known as meth, is currently classified as a schedule 2 drug but should be promoted to a schedule 1 drug for its now outdated medical usage. Currently, methamphetamine can be prescribed by a doctor to treat attention hyperactivity disorder and other conditions, although it is rarely used medically. It is prescribed at doses much lower than those typically abused. (NIH, 2014). There are now other types of stimulants that are more effective, and more regularly used in the medical world for treating hyperactivity such as Ritalin or Adderall. Marijuana, a schedule 1 drug, has more proven health benefits than a schedule 2 drug, meth. Methamphetamine should be changed to a schedule 1 drug, as It has limited medical usage in this time period, and is highly toxic effects on the body if the person becomes addicted. Ritalin and Adderall are two commonly prescribed medications for hyperactive disorders such as Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). Metham phetamine is not even on the list of prescribed medication for ADHD. (NY Times, 2013). It is an outdated medical drug, and has limited medical usage. Most articles when describing meth’s medical usage has a few sentences about it can be used to treat ADHD or obesity. (EMCDDA, 2015). There are better forms of treatment available now with the advances in drug research and design for disorders that meth was previously prescribed for. In this current time period, marijuana is a schedule 1 drugShow MoreRelatedWhat Is The Potential For Addiction?1320 Words   |  6 Pageshard. Because the dopamine release feels so pleasing, many people become obsessed and chase that feeling over and over again. Methamphetamine is known as one of the easiest drugs to become addicted to. The addiction is very severe, many people relapse after long periods without the drug. However, the more the drug is used, the harder it is to receive a â€Å"high†. 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